August 23, 2026:
The situation in Libya has remained largely unchanged over the last few years. Recently, American officials sought to negotiate a settlement between Libya's two rival governments. The UN-recognized GNU/Government of National Unity is based in Tripoli, western Libya. The rival eastern government is based in Benghazi and run by Khalifa Haftar’s LAAF/Libyan Arab Armed Forces. This group is still widely known by its original title, the LNA (Libyan National Army). The reconciliation effort failed, mainly because both factions grew wealthier each year through oil revenue, leaving enough money to keep the Libyan population satisfied. In other words, American efforts would upset an imperfect but functional system. When the only other option is a violent civil war, most Libyans are content to take what they need.
Earlier this year, in an unusual multibillion-dollar arms deal, Pakistan provided one of the two factions in the Libyan civil war with substantial arms sales and training support. Pakistan sold $4.6 billion worth of combat and trainer aircraft to Khalifa Haftar’s LAAF, which is also known as the clan/tribal faction subsidized by Turkey. This includes sixteen JF-17 jet fighter bombers and twelve Super Mushak jet trainers. The deal also includes training for pilots and aircraft maintainers, as well as officers who will plan and control air operations. Deliveries will not be complete until sometime in 2028. Given the general incompetence and corruption of the LNA faction, this sale is most likely being made to provide rake-off money to the very corrupt Pakistani military.
So, how is this relevant to attempts to form a unified government? The rationale for a unified government is that it will bring stability from which economic development can emerge, particularly in the oil sector. The fuel report is particularly relevant in the context of the US push for unity. Boulos is seeking to scale up US investments in Libya’s oil sector if the two rival factions work together.
But the report's findings call into question whether simply formalizing a modus vivendi between rival players in Libya would really provide a basis for development. Power-sharing might simply make corruption worse by reducing existing constraints on rising state expenditure. It would also not be a positive outcome for international oil companies, who are reluctant to make significant capital investments in a market where legal enforcement is at the whim of feuding ruling families, whose competition would likely continue within the new government.
A key lesson from the anti-corruption agencies’ reports is that examining the operating system of Libya’s governing authorities is critical, and that any future government must face clear conditions for how it manages the state’s finances. These conditions must include greater transparency and an emphasis on providing public services, not private enrichment. The fact that a US-mediated unified budget for Libya agreed in April has not yet been meaningfully implemented shows that political breakthroughs without an implementation plan do not change realities on the ground.
Of course, Libya's elites would resist such conditionality, making the path to forming a new government harder. In practice, it will also bind the US to a role in monitoring the implementation of whatever is agreed upon. But it is the only way to secure the base conditions for investment that Boulos seeks.
Mediators versed in the challenges of finding agreement between rival leaders in Libya understandably question what the alternative is to an elite bargain between the Haftars and the Dabaibas. But if a new government formed on the basis Boulos suggests does not improve governance, its utility is, at best, limited.
The LNA Air Force currently has about 15 operational Russian MiG-21, MiG-23, and Su aircraft plus two French Mirage F-1s. It also has about 20 trainer aircraft and about ten helicopters. There are also about 30 Chinese and Russian drones used for reconnaissance and attacks on ground targets.
Libya has been chaotic since dictator Muammar Gaddafi was ousted from office and killed in 2011. This was followed by a persistent ongoing civil war. Eastern Libya is controlled by the Government of National Accord (GNA), while western Libya is controlled by the Libyan National Army (LNA). This was further complicated in 202o when Turkey sent several thousand troops and dozens of drones to protect its illegal offshore natural gas and oil claims granted by the LNA in exchange for protection from its GNA rival. Turkish troops will remain in the country at least until 2026. This continued presence has been a major obstacle to national elections and a peaceful resolution to the twelve-year civil war.
In early 2020, Turkey reinforced the LNA, a UN and Muslim Brotherhood-supported government that failed to gain any national support and even faces problems in Tripoli, where rival militias often fight each other. The Turks refuse to send troops to pacify Tripoli and get the militias off the streets. The Turks believe that would lead to endless urban guerrilla war as the militias continued to operate while attacking the Turkish troops seeking to maintain order.
Eastern Libya is more orderly because the last elected Libyan government, the House of Representatives, is protected by the GNA, run by General Haftar and his sons. The GNA is run like a military organization with discipline and regular supplies, plus medical care for the wounded and proper burial for those killed. It also has significant support from Egypt and some Arab oil states, who oppose Turkish intervention in Libya.
The LNA, confined to Tripoli and Misrata, was slowly being conquered by the GNA when the Turks intervened in 2020. That occurred when the GNA launched an offensive on Tripoli, pushing back the militias fighting for control of the city's neighborhoods. The GNA eventually agreed to a ceasefire and national elections, but the Turkish military and Syrian Arab mercenaries continue to occupy positions in Libya, with no plans for withdrawal. Meanwhile, Egypt is increasingly concerned about the Turkish military presence along its borders.
The LNA is not eager for a free and fair election because most Libyans believe it is affiliated with Islamic militias in Tripoli and in Misrata to the east. An elected government is expected to impose order on the chaotic city of Tripoli. Turkey and Russia, which have oil development contracts in Libya, both believe an honest government would hurt their oil and natural gas extraction and export deals.
Libya's economic landscape mirrors its turbulent military situation, characterized by instability and foreign dependencies. The prolonged conflict has severely disrupted the country's economic activities, especially its vital oil industry, which has historically been the backbone of the Libyan economy.
Frequent clashes between rival factions and control over key oil facilities have led to inconsistent oil production and exports. Although Libya holds significant oil reserves, production volatility has hampered consistent revenue generation. The inability to manage and distribute oil revenues effectively has further exacerbated the economic hardships faced by the Libyan population.
Furthermore, foreign interventions have complicated economic recovery efforts. Countries like Turkey, Russia, and the UAE/United Arab Emirates have vested interests in Libya's resources, influencing economic policies and further entrenching divisions. The ongoing presence of Turkish troops and mercenaries adds a layer of complexity to economic stabilization efforts, with various factions and foreign supporters vying for control over lucrative resources.
Libya's infrastructure has also suffered extensively due to the conflict. Essential services such as healthcare, education, and public utilities are in disarray, contributing to the declining quality of life for many Libyans. Rebuilding infrastructure will require significant foreign investment and stable local governance, both of which are currently lacking.
Libya's current military and economic situation is chaotic. No one is prepared to pacify the country for the good of all Libyans. Turkey has deployed troops and warships, while Russia and the UAE supply weapons and equipment to pro-GNA factions. The rival factions are deadlocked because of Turkish intervention, and that means Libya remains divided and chaotic. Libya is a difficult country for firms trying to operate international oil extraction and export operations. To make that work, lots of money is spent on bribes to the various local militias that periodically seize control of oil facilities and don't leave until they are paid - again. Libya was always a corrupt place, and the deceased dictator Gaddafi kept the country peaceful while slowly improving the economy for most Libyans. Peace in Libya made Gaddafi confident enough to intervene in Chad and to support rebel groups in Morocco, South Africa, and elsewhere. Gaddafi sought to maintain good relations with the United States, but that became difficult after the terror attacks in the United States during 2001 that left thousands of Americans dead. Gaddafi was not involved, but the U.S. was wary of his intentions after 2001.
The Russians are seen as reliable allies of Libya, even though it was Russia that supplied Libya with most of its weapons throughout the Gaddafi era from the 1960s to 2011 and is now delivering fewer, but more modern ones, like anti-tank guided missiles and portable anti-aircraft missiles to bring down drones. The Turks are seen as a former imperial overlord trying to make a comeback. Their weapons and drones are superior to the Russians’. The Turks also ignore the fact that most Libyans oppose the Islamic conservative militias that the Turks support and see the Turks as more of a threat than the Russians or Arabs who are backing the GNA.
Turkey is threatening war with its neighbor Greece because it demands control of Mediterranean offshore areas which might contain lucrative natural gas deposits. Gaddafi's government had promised those areas to Greece in various European treaties, and the LNA later gave them to Turkey in exchange for Turkish intervention to save them from the GNA. Turkey is also at odds with the United States in Syria. All these foreign adventures are an effort to distract Turkish voters from the current economic recession they are suffering from, as well as their government's continuing suppression of internal criticism of the government’s corruption.